The market keeps treating US Iran tension like a short-term headline. It’s not. If this drags into a long-term blockade scenario, we’re not just talking about oil spikes for a few days this reshapes flows. Strait of Hormuz risk alone can choke ~20% of global oil supply. That’s structural, not temporary. US strategy looks less like direct conflict, more like pressure over time sanctions, naval presence, tightening trade routes. Slow burn, but effective. Iran responds asymmetrically, which keeps uncertainty elevated without full escalation. What this means: Energy stays bid Inflation gets a second wave risk Central banks stuck in a harder position Risk assets trade more headline-to-headline This isn’t 2020 style shock and recover. It’s a grind. Geopolitics is back as a macro driver and it’s not leaving anytime soon. #USIranLongTermBlockade #DailyOrbit $BTC